When Will Bitcoin Reach $200,000?

It seems to be an unwritten rule: as soon as an investment asset crosses a major psychological threshold, investors start speculating about when the next milestone will be reached. While such speculation isn’t always meant to be taken seriously, it can still be worth following. 

Predictions, like those made by the son of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, that bitcoin will surge to $1 million due to the election of the most "pro-crypto" president in history or that the U.S. will become the global hub for cryptocurrency markets, are not to be taken at face value. Yet, the election of Donald Trump did play a significant role in driving bitcoin’s price past $100,000.

Cautious investors might interpret such news as a potential warning of a near-term price drop, a common occurrence in the investment world. When a self-proclaimed expert makes bold claims about price increases, it’s wise to stay alert.

Bitcoin at $100,000. What’s Next?
In early December 2024, bitcoin broke through the $100,000 level—a milestone once seen by many as unattainable. Of course, there were plenty of optimists who always believed it would happen, some supporting their confidence with various analyses and charts.

One notable example is a chart shared by user OxNobler, who argues that $200,000 per bitcoin is a realistic target by late 2025. This prediction, made back in October 2024 when bitcoin was below $70,000, has already gained some credibility.



However, there’s a catch: the chart’s scale is unconventional. While using a logarithmic scale is common, the specific format makes it less intuitive. By contrast, a second chart, published by Investopedia, provides a more detailed view of bitcoin’s price dips.


It will be fascinating to see what happens if bitcoin does hit $200,000 within a year. Bitcoin has experienced significant dips in the past, as clearly shown in the charts, so we can expect similar movements. In the meantime, there’s plenty of room for speculation about bitcoin’s behavior around the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin remains a volatile asset. After hitting a record high of over $103,600, the price fell to around $92,000 the following day. This decline, however, appeared to be typical profit-taking, as the price rebounded above $100,000 within days. Large institutional investors like BlackRock, which holds an estimated $50 billion in bitcoin, and MARA Holdings, one of the largest bitcoin miners, took advantage of the dip to buy more.

Why Will Bitcoin’s Price Rise?
Donald Trump remains an influential figure. His proposal to appoint Paul Atkins, CEO of Patomak Global Partners and a known cryptocurrency advocate, as the head of the SEC, is one such example. Additionally, Trump has suggested including bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves, while Senator Cynthia Lummins has proposed purchasing 200,000 bitcoins annually over the next five years.

This reflects a broader trend: the increasing integration of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems. Reducing regulatory barriers—long a major obstacle to bitcoin’s widespread adoption—could help bitcoin shed its speculative label.

A significant step this year was the introduction of bitcoin spot ETFs, which are currently thriving (with a net inflow of 500,000 bitcoins this week). Bitcoin is gradually becoming a financial asset of choice for institutional investors, hedge funds, banks, and even pension funds. The more these entities invest in bitcoin, the more stable its price growth is likely to become.

Growth Is Not Guaranteed 
While bitcoin was initially designed as an alternative currency, its current high price makes it impractical for everyday use, except for the most enthusiastic adopters. It hardly makes sense to spend a currency that could gain 10% in value within days. For skeptics, bitcoin remains a high-risk asset with no clear fundamentals, driven largely by hype during periods when everyone wants to own it.

These bullish periods are often followed by downturns and prolonged stagnation, as seen in the charts. Those who bought bitcoin at $40,000 are sitting comfortably today, but those who invested at $100,000 should temper their expectations. Despite the optimism, there are factors that could slow or reverse bitcoin’s growth—an idea that may seem far-fetched in December 2024.

For instance, geopolitical instability, such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, could push investors away from risky assets like bitcoin and toward safe havens like gold. A slower-than-expected rollout of pro-crypto policies by the new U.S. administration could also dampen current enthusiasm, leading to a correction in bitcoin’s price.

There’s also been recent chatter in the bitcoin community about the potential threat of quantum computers. Google’s new quantum chip, Willow, is reportedly capable of solving problems in minutes that would take years for current supercomputers. While this raises concerns about cryptocurrency security, experts believe these fears are premature. Even with Willow’s impressive speed, it’s not yet powerful enough to compromise bitcoin’s encryption. For now, this remains a concern for the distant future.

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